As Ukraine immerses deeper into protracted chaos, the autonomous republic of Crimea exits voluntarily from the collapsing structure of the Ukrainian state and subsequently reunifies with Russia to which it historically belongs. Since the collapse of the Berlin War and the end of the Cold War, many serious analysts in Europe have already started to put into the question NATO’s existence: the perceived threat from the dissolved Soviet Union ceased to exist, what was NATO’s continued existence all about then? Ironically, with the Ukrainian crisis the North Atlantic Treaty Organization seems to have found its new raison d’ etre.
In the course of the last couple of years NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic painfully looked for the right pretext to attach the coalition forces moved out from Afghanistan closer to the European borders of Russia and Belarus. Especially, Washington excelled in this search. NATO is for the US the main tool used to keep the American presence on the European continent and strengthen the so-called transatlantic relations that are critical to the US economy and its ambitions for global dominance.
Long before the Ukrainian crisis it was difficult for the US and its allies in Europe to explain why NATO decided to rapidly arm Poland, transfer its troops and weapons from Western to Central Europe and develop the concept of annual large-scale military exercises near the western border of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with the participation of Ukraine in the framework of the «Connected Forces Initiative». Now NATO seems to have а good motive for these activities. In a word, the coup d’ etat in Kiev and its consequences turned out for the US and the European countries just in time.
The new authorities in Kiev and certain organizations of the Western-sponsored ‘civil society’, which form the Ukrainian NATO supporters, were quickly disappointed with the position of the North Atlantic Alliance. On the one hand NATO accuses Moscow of agitating trouble in Ukraine, while on other hand it does not show any will to directly intervene in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The new Kiev authorities realized too soon that they must rely primarily on their own forces, the backbone of which are the Ukrainian security service, the police, the militants of the “Right Sector”.
As a result of this, the new Ukrainian government and its Western trustees, including the leadership of NATO, according to open media sources, has worked out a strategy, the main objectives of which appear to be:
i. Recovery with the assistance of Western consultants of combat readiness of the Ukrainian army and interior troops within sufficient timeframe to conduct punitive actions and deter Russia in conditions where the majority of local Russian-speaking population will ask her for help.
ii. Ensuring constant presence of NATO military contingents on the territory of Ukraine under the pretext of preparation and staging of exercises with the participation of Ukrainian army units.
iii. Make sure Ukraine joins in the regional defence initiatives of the Central and Northern European countries, which are not formally included in the NATO structures, but closely cooperate with the North Atlantic Alliance;
iv. Strengthen the military contingent of NATO along the western borders of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus with a focus on Air Force as well as Special Forces.
In order to achieve the above goals, it is planned to establish an expeditionary force, able in a short time to be deployed in the area of crisis.
Apparently, the future military doctrine of Ukraine, will have an aggressive anti-Russian character based on the hypothesis that the real enemy is at the Eastern and Southern borders, where Kiev should create a defensive infrastructure. Military units, located there, including of the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine, will be formed in general on contract basis from among the nationalist-minded citizens of the Western and Central regions. They will also form the majority of the National Guard, which, if necessary, will be used to suppress any manifestations of discontent vis-a-vis the current government policies under the pretext of fighting against ‘separatism’.
From the above discussion it follows that high attention is expected to be paid to interaction between the special services of Ukraine and NATO countries. In the future, the joint activity of Ukrainian and Western special services may be the focal point of efforts of those members of the North Atlantic Alliance that are acting in line with the strategy of US neo-conservatives and the Anglo-Saxon camp as a whole.