New US Scenario for Ukraine?

The unfolding events in Ukraine after the 12 February Minsk ceasefire show that US neo-colonial policies in the region are failing. The Americans are increasingly realizing that they cannot fully play the Ukrainian card against Russia. Washington is expected to proceed to plan B or C in order to leave the chaos of controlled conflict in the region. Such a situation serves the prime US interest of further weakening Russia whilst in parallel keeping Europe in check. A number of concrete steps are taken towards this goal.

It seems that the Ukrainian authorities entertain an ulterior motive in their talk about UN peacekeepers and EU police mission. In the near future, on the initiative of Kiev (in all probability following US wishes), this issue will be discussed by the UN Security Council.

Russia, for its part, has already stated that the latest Minsk agreement should just be observed and made it clear that there is not much of a point in these missions. Moscow places utmost importance to the implementation of the painstakingly negotiated 12th February Minsk Agreement. According to the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are to create their own police forces. The OSCE will hold observation missions of the separatist area. Naturally, if some other schemes are immediately put forward, the question arises if the Minsk agreement is going to be implemented, Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, wondered.

What do the Americans and Kiev really seek? A repetition of the Kosovo model? A UN peacekeeping mission, even with the participation of Russia, as the first step to legitimization of foreign military presence in Ukraine? Then an EU police mission can become the follow-up measure designed to preserve the status quo and keep the national liberation movement in Novorossia within the borders of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’. If the Europeans balk at the consequences, the Americans will accuse everyone of unwillingness to settle the conflict and will continue to bolster up Kiev’s punitive forces with military counselors, mercenaries and weapons which Washington has long been supplying directly and indirectly through its NATO allies.

Interestingly, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor is not keen in further militarizing the conflict by sending more weapons to the Kiev government. Sensing the distance Berlin keeps from Washington, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin stated that Germany should take more responsibility for the resolution of conflicts in Europe and monitor the compliance of the latest Minsk agreement. In other words Klimkin says that Europe should not allow the US to expose Europe as unable of solving problems of regional security.

Not without reason, Russia is watchful of the Western NATO-driven Kosovo model ‘peacekeeping ideas. The self-proclaimed people’s republics of eastern Ukraine do not put much trust to the current Kiev authorities, neither to the US nor to the EU. Naturally, the pro-Russian Easterners understand that their future depends on themselves including their resolve to fight for freedom with arms. And the number of such people in the East of Ukraine is growing.