Eastern Ukraine – INTERSECURITYFORUM https://www.inter-security-forum.org Energy Security for Cyprus Tue, 04 Aug 2015 06:16:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 US Drives Europe in a Vicious Circle of anti-Russian Sanctions https://www.inter-security-forum.org/us-drives-europe-in-a-vicious-circle-of-anti-russian-sanctions/ Tue, 04 Aug 2015 06:16:34 +0000 http://www.inter-security-forum.org/?p=523 Blackmail and force pressure remain the primary tool of American diplomacy. The U.S. continues to pressure the EU on the ‘necessity’ of sanctions against Russia. However, with the passage of time an increasing number of European countries are resisting the imposition of U.S. policy toward Russia.
The Greek leadership is clearly aware that anti-Russian sanctions, to which Washington force them, cause enormous damage both to the Greek economy, which is in deep recession, and to the long-standing, historical relations between Greece and Russia. But all this does not matter for Washington, which is accustomed to dictating the policy terms to its European partners, forcing them not to follow their national interests, but the American ones. The unbending US policy is causing growing discontent in Eastern Europe. The leaders of Hungary, the Czech Republic, Serbia, Slovakia, FYR of Macedonia do not hide their irritation due to the pressure exercised by Washington, seeking to make them puppets instead of leaders of sovereign independent states, The US steadily drives them to compliantly execute any order from the State Department.
It is clear that the United States of America have no significant trade or investment relations with the Russia Federation. Therefore, unleashing the economic and financial war against Russia, America is not particularly at risk. But for Europe and for Ukraine, this multi-faceted war, economic and otherwise, surely spells disaster.
Russia has been for long years the guarantor of stability of the European energy market. It supplies almost half of the oil and a third of the total gas consumption of these energy resources to the EU. Certain European countries totally dependent on Russian gas supplies. In the case of freezing of funds in foreign accounts of Russian state-owned companies and trade embargo, the EU will come to a total collapse of its economy.
A significant amount of investment and loans also binds Europe with Russia. In the case of continuing economic warfare these assets will also be lost. This will lead to falling profitability and bankruptcy of a number of companies and banks, to falling European stock market, hence rising unemployment.
Thus, sanctions and trade war against Russia benefit only the U.S., which kills two birds with one stone, deciding their goals both towards the EU and towards Russia.
After all, it is important to understand what Ukraine, the ‘unsuccessful younger brother’ is for Europe. Kiev faces enormous challenges. Deep recession puts the national economy in a precarious position.
In addition, the European financial stability mechanism is not designed to load in hundreds billions of euro into the Ukraine. If Brussels decides to save the Ukrainian economy from total collapse, the task will be overwhelming. Such an eventuality will not in the least please the governments of the Euro-zone member states.
As a result of such assistance to Ukraine, which is not even an EU member, it is estimated that EU economies will recede further by 15 to 25 per cent. And this can lead to a withdrawal of a number of southern European countries from the EU (Greece is the first likely example of such a situation). The collapse of the Euro-zone and consequently of the entire EU is a nightmare scenario – an affront to the many enlightened European statesmen who have been building the ideal of a single Europe in the past decades. Such a nightmare is in danger of becoming a reality – because of the ill-conceived Washington propelled policy on Ukraine.
Is it worth pulling the fate of the European economy into the Ukrainian card being played by the US? Europe, if left alone to decide, will probably answer no. Would it not be better Europe and Russia take joint steps to stabilize the situation in Ukraine? Primarily through the formation of responsible government in Kiev, capable of ensuring peace and observance of its commitments.
It is prudent to give the Ukraine an opportunity to live and develop, to be a stable and predictable partner than to turn the central European terrain into a ‘black hole’ that undermines Europe’s stability and economy, and also becomes a handy tool serving the U.S. for confrontation with Russia.

]]> New US Scenario for Ukraine? https://www.inter-security-forum.org/new-us-scenario-for-ukraine/ Wed, 11 Mar 2015 09:07:57 +0000 http://www.inter-security-forum.org/?p=513 The unfolding events in Ukraine after the 12 February Minsk ceasefire show that US neo-colonial policies in the region are failing. The Americans are increasingly realizing that they cannot fully play the Ukrainian card against Russia. Washington is expected to proceed to plan B or C in order to leave the chaos of controlled conflict in the region. Such a situation serves the prime US interest of further weakening Russia whilst in parallel keeping Europe in check. A number of concrete steps are taken towards this goal.

It seems that the Ukrainian authorities entertain an ulterior motive in their talk about UN peacekeepers and EU police mission. In the near future, on the initiative of Kiev (in all probability following US wishes), this issue will be discussed by the UN Security Council.

Russia, for its part, has already stated that the latest Minsk agreement should just be observed and made it clear that there is not much of a point in these missions. Moscow places utmost importance to the implementation of the painstakingly negotiated 12th February Minsk Agreement. According to the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are to create their own police forces. The OSCE will hold observation missions of the separatist area. Naturally, if some other schemes are immediately put forward, the question arises if the Minsk agreement is going to be implemented, Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, wondered.

What do the Americans and Kiev really seek? A repetition of the Kosovo model? A UN peacekeeping mission, even with the participation of Russia, as the first step to legitimization of foreign military presence in Ukraine? Then an EU police mission can become the follow-up measure designed to preserve the status quo and keep the national liberation movement in Novorossia within the borders of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’. If the Europeans balk at the consequences, the Americans will accuse everyone of unwillingness to settle the conflict and will continue to bolster up Kiev’s punitive forces with military counselors, mercenaries and weapons which Washington has long been supplying directly and indirectly through its NATO allies.

Interestingly, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor is not keen in further militarizing the conflict by sending more weapons to the Kiev government. Sensing the distance Berlin keeps from Washington, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin stated that Germany should take more responsibility for the resolution of conflicts in Europe and monitor the compliance of the latest Minsk agreement. In other words Klimkin says that Europe should not allow the US to expose Europe as unable of solving problems of regional security.

Not without reason, Russia is watchful of the Western NATO-driven Kosovo model ‘peacekeeping ideas. The self-proclaimed people’s republics of eastern Ukraine do not put much trust to the current Kiev authorities, neither to the US nor to the EU. Naturally, the pro-Russian Easterners understand that their future depends on themselves including their resolve to fight for freedom with arms. And the number of such people in the East of Ukraine is growing.

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